(Perspective on provocation, 영국 The Guardian, 면 단, 7.06)
북한의 무분별하고 도발적인 미사일 발사는 흔해빠졌지만 명백한 냉전시대의 냄새를 불러왔다. 현재와 수십 년 전과 차이가 있다면, 미국, 일본, 러시아 및 유럽이 거의 한 목소리로 “은둔왕국”을 비난하고 있다는 것이다. 중국이 김정일에 공식적으로 미사일 발사계획을 철회하라고 촉구하긴 했지만, 중국의 반응만 조용한 상태이다. 그러나 유엔 아보리가 긴급회의에 들어가면서, 국제사회는 북한이 아시아의 안정을 위협하는 동안 가만히 서서 지켜보지 않을 것이라는 것을 보여주었다.
이 무기를 미국의 독립기념일인 7월 4일 시험 발사한 것은 일부러 호랑이의 꼬리를 잡아당긴 것이었다. 특히나 이 모든 준비과정이 미국의 첩보 인공위성에 의해 쉽게 탐지되기 때문이다. 아마도 미국에 유일하게 좋은 소식은 대포동 2호미사일이 발사 직후 폭발되었다는 것일 것이다. 그렇지 않았다면, 미국의 요격미사일에 맞았을 것이다.
항상 그랬듯이 북한은 주의를 끌고, 완화되어야만 하는 위기를 만들어내고 있다.
적절한 반응은 외교를 소생시키는 것이다. 6자회담은 지난 11월 이후 멈춘 상태다. 곧 생길 수 있는 일은 아니지만, 조만간 미 정부는 북한과 직접 대화를 할 필요가 있다. 무엇보다도 지금은 선동적인 “악의 축” 수사를 피하고 냉정한 머리와 침착한 분석이 필요한 때이다. 짧게 말해, 유아적인 도발 앞에서 성숙함이 필요한 때이다.
North Korea's reckless and provocative firing of missiles over the Sea of Japan has brought a stale but unmistakable whiff of cold war days. The difference between now and a few decades ago is the near universal condemnation of the "hermit kingdom" by the US, Japan, Russia and Europe. Only China's reaction was muted, though it had publicly called on Kim Jong-il not to go ahead with his plans. But with the UN security council convening in special session, Pyongyang has been left in no doubt that the international community will not stand by and watch while it threatens the stability of Asia.
Testing these weapons on July 4, American independence day, was a deliberately cheeky tweak of the tiger's tail, all the more so since the preparations were so easily monitored by US spy satellites. Perhaps the only good news for Washington was that the Taepodong-2 missile, technically capable of hitting Alaska, exploded just moments after launch, whether by chance or by some machiavellian signal-sending design. Had it not, it might well have been shot down by US interceptor missiles.
Not for the first time, North Korea is seeking to attract attention and generate a crisis that must be defused. That has been the most widely held interpretation of its notoriously opaque behaviour since it was found to have been cheating on a 1994 deal signed with the Clinton administration by operating a secret nuclear programme. Last year it announced it had developed nuclear weapons, though the claim has never been verified. The old quip about the Soviet Union being "Upper Volta with rockets" fits it perfectly - a state that is poor, underdeveloped and unfree but which has an eyecatching strategic capability designed to give it a role on the global or regional stage - and perhaps help it obtain security guarantees and economic aid. Strikingly, North Korea's state media did not report the launches but splashed proudly on the "Dear Leader's" visit to a tyre factory.
Still, this was more than a Potemkin launch. These manoeuvres break a moratorium on missile launches going back to 1999. They come too amidst concern about the proliferation of missiles (some sold by North Korea to Iran and Pakistan) and the alarming erosion of the global nuclear non-proliferation regime. In recent years India and Pakistan have "crossed the threshold" to join Israel as nuclear weapons powers outside any legal framework. Iran - a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty - is playing cat and mouse over its own nuclear ambitions. Was it coincidence that Tehran chose yesterday to announce it was further delaying its response to the incentives drawn up by the EU, with US and Russian backing? It was no coincidence that the White House linked the two.
Kim Jong-il looks irrational and perhaps out of control, though his move was doubtless triggered in part by the financial pressure the US is bringing to bear on his Stalinist regime. Its immediate effect will be counterproductive and is likely to strengthen the hawks in Washington, Tokyo and Seoul. Aid from South Korea, such as rice and fertiliser, is likely to dry up, worsening hunger in the north. Japan announced immediate punitive measures. But wider sanctions, given China's aversion to backing them at the UN, and the parlous state of the North Korean economy, are unlikely.
The right response must be a reinvigoration of diplomacy. Six-party talks - involving the US, China, Japan, Russia, and the two Koreas - have been stalled since last November. It will not happen quickly, but sooner or later Washington will need to talk directly to Pyongyang - which was wisely dismissed by one US senator as a "paper tiger". Above all this is a time for cool heads and calm analysis, keeping things in perspective and avoiding inflammatory "axis of evil" rhetoric: for maturity, in short, in the face of a childish provocation.